The 2019 PRC Symposium on Remaking Retirement? Debt in an Aging Economy explored changing patterns of debt as the world ages and what these patterns will imply for retirement security.
Implications for plan sponsors, benefits specialists, actuaries, academics, regulators, and plan participants were drawn out in terms of saving, investment, consumption, and housing expenditures.
This conference was by invitation only.
Thursday, May 2, 2019
Introductory Remarks: Olivia S. Mitchell, The Wharton School
Session I: Debt Developments in an Aging Economy
Moderator: Annamaria Lusardi, George Washington University
- Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York: “The Graying of American Debt” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
- Wenli Li, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Michelle White, UCSD & NBER: “Financial Distress among the Elderly: Bankruptcy Reform and the Financial Crisis” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
Discussant: Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives (video available here, presentation slides available here)
- Jason Brown, Social Security Administration, Karen Dynan, HKS, and Theodore Figinski, US Treasury: “The Risk of Financial Hardship in Retirement: A Cohort Analysis” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
- Charles Yuji Horioka, Kobe University & NBER and Yoko Niimi, Doshisha University: “Aging and Debt in Japan” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
Discussant: John Sabelhaus, Federal Reserve Board (video available here, presentation slides available here)
Session II: Retirement, Debt, and Financial Fragility at Older Ages
Moderator: David Richardson, TIAA Institute
- Annamaria Lusardi, George Washington University, Olivia S. Mitchell, The Wharton School, and Noemi Oggero, University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto: “Financial Vulnerability in Later Life and its Implications for Retirement Well-being” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
- Anne Lester, Katherine Santiago, Je Oh, Livia Wu, and Ekaterina Chegaeva, JP Morgan: “Paying it back: Real-world Debt Service Trends and Implications for Retirement Planning” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
Discussant: Gary Mottola, FINRA (video available here)
- Lori Trawinski, AARP: “Older Americans and the Mortgage Market Crisis: An Update” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
- Robert Clark and Siyan Liu, North Carolina State University: “Financial Well-being of State and Local Government Retirees in North Carolina” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
Discussant: Rick Fulford, PIMCO (video available here)
Evening Keynote: “Debt and the Great Recession”
Speaker: Atif Mian, Princeton University (video available here, presentation slides available here)
Relevant Papers:
- Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel
Atif R. Mian and Amir Sufi - Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth
Ernest Liu, Atif R. Mian, and Amir Sufi
Moderator: Kent Smetters, The Wharton School
Friday, May 3, 2019
Session III: Policy Perspective on Debt at Older Ages
Moderator: Mark Warshawsky, Social Security Administration
- Barbara Butrica, Urban Institute and Nadia Karamcheva, Congressional Budget Office: “Is Rising Household Debt Affecting Retirement Decisions?” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
- Andrew Biggs, AEI: “How Much Should the Poor Save for Retirement? Data and Simulations on Retirement Income Adequacy among Low-earning Households” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
- Adrian Alter, Alan Xiaochen Feng, and Nico Valckx, International Monetary Fund: “Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective” (presentation slides available here, paper available here)
Discussant: Brett Hammond, Capital Group (video available here, presentation slides available here)
Morning Fireside Chat: “Will there be a New Debt Crisis?”
Speaker: Sheila Bair (video available here)
Moderator: Richard Herring, The Wharton School