Public Debt and Retirement Security
April 30–May 1, 2026
Public debt in the US is poised to exceed the nation’s GDP very soon, and similar patterns are also true for many other countries. This global trend poses serious economic challenges for economic growth and interest rates, and in the process, it will alter how saving and investment for retirement evolves. This conference explored how the rise of public debt is shaping saving and investment patterns of key players in the capital market including pension systems, insurers, and households. Speakers traced the sources of this debt, identified how to manage risks posed by the debt, and explained the influence of such debt on savings and investment for retirement.
US Debt Clock
Calculating debt...
Hosted By
Nikolai Roussanov
Moise Y. Safra Professor
Professor of Finance
The Wharton School
Olivia S. Mitchell
International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans Professor
Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy
The Wharton School
Agenda
A copy of the agenda can be downloaded here.
Romina Boccia and Ivane Nachkebia
“Social Security’s Role in the Federal Debt Explosion: Past, Present, and the Reform Imperative”
Christian Lundblad
“Tax Policy, Retirement Security, and Municipal Bond Market Segmentation”
Sean Vanatta
Karen K. Lewis
Anya Nakhmurina
“Monitoring in the Municipal Market: Evidence and Suggestions”
Sebastien Betermier
“Pre-Fund or PAYGO Retiree Benefits? Insights from US Retiree Health Care Plans”
Darren Aiello
Kent Smetters
Keynote Speakers:
John Cochrane
“Why Debt Matters for Retirement”
Janice Eberly
“Public Liabilities, Investments, and Prospects for Retirement”
Session One: Public Debt Around the World: What Do the Numbers Tell Us?
- Moderator: Katherine Santiago (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)
- Karen Dynan (Harvard): “Population Aging and the Long-Term Federal Debt Outlook”
- Slides available here
- Romina Boccia and Ivane Nachkebia (Cato Institute): “Social Security’s Role in the Federal Debt Explosion: Past, Present, and Reform Imperative”
- Slides available here
- Discussant: Joao Gomes (Wharton)
- Slides available here
Session Two: Public Debt and Retirement Assets
- Moderator: Eugene Han (Capital Group)
- Daniel Bergstresser (Brandeis) and Randolph Cohen (HBS): “Changing Patterns in Household Ownership of Municipal Debt: Evidence from the 1989–2022 Surveys of Consumer Finances”
- Slides available here
- Chotibhak Jotikasthira (SMU), Christian Lundblad (UNC), and Tarun Ramadorai (Imperial College London): “Tax Policy, Retirement Security, and Municipal Bond Market Segmentation”
- Slides available here
- Discussant: Kelly Hahn (Vanguard)
Session Three: Backing Public Pension Promises
- Moderator: Justin Held (IFEBP)
- James A. Callahan, Jason Ellement, Yosangel Haddad, Kevin Machiz, Brad Penter, and Brianne Weymouth (Callan): “Historical and Prospective Analysis of Public Defined Benefit Plan Investment Trends”
- Slides available here
- Andrew Biggs (AEI): “Lessons for Retirement Security from Well-Regulated Pensions”
- Slides available here
- Discussant: Andrew Palmer (Former CIO, Maryland State Retirement and Pension System)
- Slides available here
- Sean Vanatta (University of Glasgow): “Historical Patterns of Public Pension Investment”
- Slides available here
- Ding Ding (MIT), Xiang Fang (University of Hong Kong), Bryan Hardy (Bank for International Settlements), and Karen K. Lewis (Wharton): “Global Pension Asset Allocations and Debt Markets”
- Slides available here
- Discussant: Timothy McDade (BlackRock)
- Slides available here
Session Four: Monitoring Public Debt and Retiree Promises
- Moderator: Jason Seligman (ICI)
- Anya Nakhmurina (Yale) and Ramona Dagostino (University of Virginia): “Monitoring in the Municipal Market: Evidence and Suggestions for Future Research”
- Slides available here
- Sebastien Betermier (McGill), Sara B. Holland (Washington and Lee University), and Sean Wilkoff (University of Nevada, Reno): “Pre-Fund or PAYGO Retiree Benefits? Insights from US Retiree Health Care Plans”
- Slides available here
- Discussant: Sean Myers (Wharton)
- Slides available here
- Darren Aiello (BYU), Asaf Bernstein (University of Colorado Boulder), Mahyar Kargar (University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign), Ryan Lewis (University of Colorado Boulder), and Michael Schwert (Wharton): “The Marginal Value of Public Pension Wealth”
- Slides available here
- Discussant: Daniel Garrett (Wharton)
- Slides available here
Roundtable: Public Debt, Transparency, and Retirement Security
Questions?
